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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Michael's Daily 7 - 30 June



Absent a change of circumstances, soon there will be another war in the Caucasus, perhaps as soon as this summer. It will start with Russian backed South Ossetia or Abkhazia militias attacking Georgia. Defending the lives of innocent civilians, Georgia will respond. Then, condemning Georgia aggression, an aggressive Russia army will pour over the borders and pounce on poor Georgia with overwhelming force. If this sounds a little like last summer’s Caucasus war, there is a reason. It is a reprise of it, except this time Russian troops will destroy even more of Georgia, perhaps even its democracy. The US was caught flat-footed by last summer’s war. For some reason, the US had no idea that it was coming, even though the Russians announced in it in a press release. There is no excuse for the US to be caught flat-footed again. The stakes involved are just too great. Squeezed in the Southern Caucasus between Russia and Turkey, Georgia projects eastward toward the oil rich Caspian Sea. On its east lays Azerbaijan. Along its southeast border lays Armenia. The Caspian Sea contains one of the world’s largest deposits of oil and gas. However, strange as it may sound, the Caspian Sea is landlocked. As a result, the only way to export Caspian Sea oil and gas is overland, , either through Russia, Iran, or Georgia. Georgia’s Southern Caucasus neighbor, Armenia, was the former Soviet Union’s southern most outpost. It juts south out like a finger from the Georgian border along Turkey’s eastern flank, all the way to Iran. There are approximately 4,000 to 5,000 Russian troops garrisoned in Armenia. Russia wants to expand its presence. However, to do so, it requires a supply route for heavy equipment. In other words, Georgia is now not only the key transit route for Caspian Sea energy, but also the transit route for Russia to supply its forces in Armenia. It is not in our best interest to allow Russia to expand its military presence in Armenia. First, it places significant Russian forces deep along Turkey’s eastern flank, and opposite of our strategically important base in Incirlik. Second, it expands the Russian’s capacity to disrupt or control all Caspian Sea oil and gas. Third, it strengthens Russia’s military ties to neighboring Iran and expands its influence within the volatile Middle East. Little known to most of us who drive around the 405 Freeway in large SUVs, but little Armenia has a big nuclear power plant. It supplies approximately 40% of the country’s electricity. And the Russians own it. What’s more, Armenia has uranium, which Russia, in a joint project with Armenia, is extracting. Armenia and Iran are in the process of expanding trade. Recently, the two countries agreed build a new rail line between them. Eminently justified for purposes of much need trade, but this new choo choo gives rise to the suspicion that there is a military purpose to this train too. Russia is already deeply involved in developing Iranian nuclear power.


Matt Bryza, the US deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, has said one of the reasons why Turkey matters so much to the United States is because of its democratic system. According to Bryza, Turkey has proven repeatedly that it can move through tough issues, like the Ergenekon investigation, constitutional challenges, challenges to the electoral system and memoranda that generate much tension in society. “There are very serious allegations that need to be worked through. And the truth needs to come out,” he said. Asked if a military coup would threaten US-Turkish relations, he said: “You can imagine, were there a military coup in Turkey, that would be quite disruptive for many people and for many relationships that Turkey's officials have of course with the US. Why Turkey matters so much strategically, one of the reasons, is because of its democratic system.” In regard to Turkey's relations with the European Union, in which Turkey aspires to be a member, he said there are a few important months ahead and referred to the support given to Turkey's EU accession by US President Barack Obama on his historic visit to Europe and Turkey. “A lot of the future prospect of Turkey's EU accession depends on the Cyprus question,” he said, apparently commenting on the upcoming European Council report due in December evaluating Turkey's progress in fulfilling its obligations. “Turkey has to make an obligation to open its ports, its airports to Greek Cypriot vessels. We also understand that Turkey wants to make sure that all of these issues are dealt with in the context of a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus issue. And we have some reason to hope that Cyprus settlement discussions brokered by the UN are making progress,” he said. Bryza said they hope breakthroughs will begin to come in late September, adding that the Cyprus question is continuing on a positive track with help from all: the international community, the US and the EU, but essentially the parties themselves. In response to a question on the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia as well as the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, Bryza said the processes are separate. “They re moving in parallel but at different speeds. One process will make progress one day or one week faster than the other one. And the other one catches up and moves ahead of it. We know that as one process makes progress, the mood generally improves in the region, and it's easier to make progress on the other one,” he said and added that Azerbaijanis sometimes don't necessarily agree that normalization of Turkey-Armenia relations and opening of the border is a positive element because they believe Armenia will grow less flexible on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process if Armenia knows its border with Turkey is about to open. “I have a different view. I tend to believe that as the Armenian side senses the possibility that it could have a normal relationship with Turkey and its border could open, it actually does become more flexible or has become more flexible,” he said. He also said that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was constructive during the last two meetings he has had with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan on May 7 in Prague and on June 4 in St. Petersburg. “Opening the border is one stage in the normalization process. It's not an immediate step. It happens as other things fall into place and as the Turkey-Armenia normalization process moves forward, which gives us time to get the breakthrough on Nagorno-Karabakh that we need. And hopefully if we are successful in forging that breakthrough in Nagorno-Karabakh, then we don't have to deal with this very difficult question,” he explained. In addition, Bryza referred to the Russian role in the process as “constructive.” “As difficult as our relationship has been with Russia and Georgia, they have been equally positive on Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said and added that Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has twice been involved in a helpful way.


In an audio message from a hide-out in South Asia this month, an Al Qaeda chief did something new: He sang the praises of an ethnic group that once barely registered in the network. "We consider the Muslims in Turkey our brothers," said Mustafa Abu Yazid, the network's operations chief. Lauding Turkish suicide bombers killed in recent attacks near the Afghan-Pakistani border, he declared, "This is a pride and honor to the nation of Islam in Turkey, and we ask Allah to accept them amongst the martyrs." The message is the latest sign of the changing composition of Islamic extremism, anti-terrorism officials and experts say. The number of Turks in Al Qaeda, long dominated by Arabs, has increased notably, officials say. And militant groups dominated by Turks and Central Asians, many of whom share Turkic culture and speak a Turkic language, have emerged as allies of and alternatives to Al Qaeda in northwestern Pakistan. "We are aware of an increasing number of Turks going to train in Pakistan," said a senior European anti-terrorism official who asked to remain anonymous because the subject is sensitive. "This increase has taken place in the past couple of years." "We are seeing almost as much propaganda material from these Turkic groups as we are from Al Qaeda," said Evan Kohlmann, a U.S. private consultant who works with anti-terrorism agencies around the world. "Turks were perceived as moderate with few connections to Al Qaeda central. Now Germany is dealing with this threat in a community that could be a sleeping giant." Germany is especially vulnerable because it has troops in Afghanistan. The threat could also intensify in other countries with Turkish populations, such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands, whose anti-terrorism agencies focus on entrenched extremism in large North African communities. As Al Qaeda's multiethnic ranks burgeoned in the 1990s, Turks trained in Afghanistan and fought in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the Russian republic of Chechnya. In 2003, Al Qaeda suicide bombers killed 70 people in attacks on synagogues and British targets in Istanbul, Turkey's largest city.


As leading EU countries are advocating alternatives to full EU membership for Turkey, Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn told Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week that Ankara should speed up reform instead of breeding unrealistic expectations during its accession process. "No one should be mistaken: There is no cruise control in the accession negotiations. Each step forward requires hard work and intense preparations by the candidates for EU membership," Rehn said. The enlargement commissioner acknowledged progress made by Turkey in the accession process, but stressed that no such advance was visible in the last six months. He stressed the "pressing need" to reform the legal and constitutional framework governing the closure of political parties, as well of guaranteeing freedom of expression and the independence and pluralism of the media. Recent reports by the European Commission and the Parliament have warned of a continuous slowdown in the reform process in Turkey. In his speech, Rehn had called for drawing inspiration from the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, for another "historic opportunity" to end the division of Cyprus. But the Turkish prime minister said that the EU view of a "2009 final rendez-vous" for completing the talks was "wrong". He made it clear that his country did not accept blame for the stalemate in Cyprus, and called for a greater EU involvement in ongoing reunification talks, under the watch of Alexander Downer, the UN's special advisor on Cyprus and a former Australian foreign minister.


On 20 July 2009,35 years are supplemented since the illegal Turkish invasion in Cyprus (20/7/1974). QUESTION: Do you believe that, the United Nations, the European Union and the International Community in general, with the lack of pressure on Turkey on behalf of them in order to collaborate, do have a great share of responsibility for the fact that 35 years afterwards, the enormous humanitarian problem of the Fallen,Missing and Undeclared Captives of Cypriot Tragedy remains unsolvable? ANSWER: YES, International Community has a serious responsibility - or - NO, International Community has no responsibility. Vote!


When Adm. James G. Stavridis took over the military’s Southern Command in late 2006, his French was excellent but he spoke no Spanish. Not content to rely on interpreters, he put himself on a crash course to learn the language. Over the next three years, his fluency was measured not only in the high-level meetings he conducted in the native tongue of his military hosts. He also read the novels of Gabriel García Márquez, the Nobel laureate from Colombia, in the original rich and lyrical Spanish. Now Admiral Stavridis’s boss, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, has given him a new assignment, which starts Tuesday. “Jim must also learn to speak NATO,” Mr. Gates said. As the new American and NATO commander in Europe, Admiral Stavridis, 54, becomes the first naval officer appointed to a position previously held by famed ground-warfare generals. It is two jobs in one, as he oversees all American forces under the United States European Command and — far more important today — serves as the supreme allied commander, Europe, NATO’s top military position. He takes the NATO command as the future viability of the alliance is tested by whether he can rally members to make good on their promises to the mission in Afghanistan. Admiral Stavridis’s background may mean he is well-suited for reading NATO’s complex and often-conflicting geography of national priorities. His grandfather was an ethnic Greek born and raised in Turkey, Greece’s historical rival, who immigrated to the United States in 1910. Admiral Stavridis was born in 1955 in West Palm Beach, Fla., to a military family, and he lived in Greece as a young child while his father, an officer in the Marines, was assigned to the United States Embassy in Athens. Mr. Gates complimented the admiral for turning the Southern Command into “the embodiment of what is now called ‘smart power,’ drawing on the full strength of our nation and our partners to enhance security, freedom and prosperity in this part of the world.”


His All Holiness, Bartholomew, Archbishop of Constantinople, New Rome and Ecumenical Patriarch, the spiritual leader of Orthodox Christians, yesterday issued a request to the Iranian government to release Greek journalist Iason Athanasiadis, who was arrested last week as he was about to leave Tehran. The Ecumenical Patriarchate maintains good relations with Iran, having signed an agreement on cultural matters. Athanasiadis, who has written for the Athens News and Kathimerini in the past, had been covering Iran’s disputed presidential election for US newspaper The Washington Times. The 30-year-old also holds a British passport but, as his family has requested, the Greek Foreign Ministry is leading efforts to secure his release.