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Thursday, April 15, 2010

Michael's List- Polls: Health Care,Midterm Elections; Russian Adoptions; Cyprus, Turkey's EU Bid; Greece-FYROM; Serbia-Kosovo-EU; Diaconate Programs



Opposition to President Barack Obama's health care law jumped after he signed it — a clear indication his victory could become a liability for Democrats in this fall's elections. A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds Americans oppose the health care remake 50 percent to 39 percent. Before a divided Congress finally passed the bill and Obama signed it at a jubilant White House ceremony last month, public opinion was about evenly split. Another 10 percent of Americans say they are neutral.


Gallup and CNN reached different results in their latest "generic" congressional ballot surveys asking voters which party's candidate they would support if the election was held today, with Gallup finding the Republicans ahead 48 percent to 44 percent and CNN/Opinion Research putting the Democrats ahead 50 percent to 46 percent. Both polls were of registered voters and both asked them to respond based on the choice of candidates in their own congressional district. The Gallup poll was conducted April 5-11 and had a margin of error of 3 points. CNN's survey April 9-11 and had a margin of error of 3.5 points. Gallup and CNN also differed last month. Gallup's March 21 poll had Democrats ahead 47 percent to 45 percent, while CNN's March 19-21 survey had Republicans leading 48 percent to 45 percent. Gallup said of its finding: "This marks the third week since the U.S. House passed healthcare reform on March 21 that the Republicans have tied or led the Democrats." Gallup is still finding an "enthusiasm gap" between Republicans and Democrats with 48 percent of Republics saying they were very enthusiastic about voting in this year's midterms compared to 30 percent of Democrats. That represents a falloff compared to the two weeks after passage of the health care reform legislation when Republican enthusiasm peaked at 54 percent to 35 percent for the Democrats.


Moscow has suspended the adoption of Russian children by American families until the two countries sign an agreement on how the well-being of the children is safeguarded. The decision, announced by spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry Andrey Nesterenko, was taken after an adopted Russian boy was rejected and sent back all alone to Russia by his adopted American mother. An American delegation headed by Michael Kirby, a senior diplomat who deals with adoption issues in the Bureau of Consular Affairs, will soon arrive to Moscow to discuss the issue. One principal question Russia wants from table is a bilateral agreement on international adoption, the Russian diplomat said. The agreement requested by the Russian side is now being prepared, confirmed US Ambassador to Moscow John Beyrle, commenting on the news for Itar-Tass news agency. He added such a document is long overdue. Earlier on Monday Dmitry Medvedev sponsored such an agreement when commenting on the scandalous case. The Russian president branded the American family’s rejection of the boy they adopted as both amoral and illegal and also mentioned several other cases when Russian children adopted by American citizens were mistreated and even died in their new parents’ care. The incident caused uproar in Russia, where mistreatment of Russian children in foreign families is taken to heart by many. Several top officials including the chair of the upper chamber of Parliament called for a moratorium on the adoption of Russian children by Americans after the incident. For Americans, Russia is the third most popular country to adopt a child from. Over the last five years US families have adopted more than 14,000 Russian kids.


A presidential election in a sliver of Cyprus on Sunday will have ramifications far beyond the territory's boundaries, from the island's fragile peace process to Turkey's bid to join the European Union. Barring a last-minute upset, hardline right-winger Dervis Eroglu is set to sweep to victory in northern Cyprus, a territory recognized as a republic only by Ankara. A staunch believer in independence from the rest of Cyprus, Eroglu has staked his claim to the presidency by accusing incumbent Mehmet Ali Talat of failing in talks with Greek Cypriots aimed at resolving their territorial dispute. The Greek side, which controls two-thirds of the island, wants reunification; Eroglu supports a two-state confederation. The independence calls are a red flag for Greek Cypriots, who represent Cyprus in the EU and will block Turkey joining the grouping until the conflict is resolved. Nominally, the entire island is in the EU, though effective membership is confined to the southern Greek Cypriot side, whose authority stops at a ceasefire line controlled by U.N. peacekeepers. Turkey started EU entry talks in 2005, but Cyprus has repeatedly used its position in the EU to block the opening of chapters, or areas to negotiate to ensure policies meet EU standards, as a pressure tactic on Ankara. Turkey is also under EU pressure to open its ports and airports to Greek Cypriot traffic, which it has so far failed to do. The talks could turn into a waiting game to see which side will blink first if Eroglu introduces his publicly expressed position for a two-state deal instead of the bi-zonal bi-communal federation Turkish Cypriots have advocated up to now. Greek Cypriot leader Demetris Christofias and Talat, a fellow leftist, have covered about half of the areas of negotiation in the peace talks launched in 2008.


A USEFUL test for an outsider trying to analyse an argument is to assume that one side is right and then to work out the consequences. If an analysis of eggshells conclusively proves that an egg is better opened at the big end rather than the small one, what follows? And if the assumption is reversed, how bad would it be to have got it wrong? Eggshells, as Jonathan Swift so bitingly observed in “Gulliver’s Travels”, are not worth getting cross about. The cost of a lifetime spent opening eggs incompetently is a small amount of wasted time and some spilled yolk. At the other extreme, take the question of whether Iran has nuclear weapons: get that wrong and you may either see Israel wiped off the map, or, alternatively, a catastrophic and unnecessary pre-emptive strike on Iran. This column’s recent attempt to look at the name dispute between Greece and its northern neighbour (FYROM to the Greeks, Macedonia to the locals) became the most-commented article ever to appear on the Economist website. A second column, which highlighted some similar issues in the post-communist world (and suggested that they might be overblown), was a runner-up. At the risk of provoking ruptured spleens all round, here is a third attempt, using the principle outlined in the first paragraph. What if the Greeks are right? What if the other camp is right? In each case, does it matter? The Greek case (crudely stated) is that Macedonia is a title properly belonging a) to ancient Macedonia and b) to the northern Greek province that bears that name. Communist Yugoslavia applied the label to its southern province (which in fact speaks a dialect of Bulgarian) as a provocation, in the aftermath of the Greek civil war. If it were to accept “Macedonia” as a name for the former Yugoslav republic, Greece would legitimise that communist name-grab and lay itself open to territorial claims, or even terrorism. It stubbornly refuses to allow its northern neighbour’s application for European Union and NATO membership to proceed until it budges on the name issue. Assume Greece’s argument is right. Would it matter? The globe is studded with ancient, buried hatchets involving names and places (which came first: Bretagne or Grande-Bretagne? Who cares?) Logically preposterous toponyms are the rule, not intolerable exceptions. So set aside that argument, unless you are trying to drum up business for map publishers. Nor does the argument about dangerous irredentism stand up. As a relatively big country, and a member of the EU and NATO, Greece can scarcely plead persecution from its small northern neighbour. The last 20 years show that expanding the EU and NATO is the best way of making troubled neighbourhoods safer. But even if there is a danger of terrorism from Skopjean extremists, how should it be contained? By including Macedonia in western clubs, prosperous and, with luck, well governed? Or by keeping it weak, divided and isolated? So even if the Greeks are right, the course of action looks wrong. What of the Macedonian/FYROM side? Assume its most hardline protagonists are right: that they are the heirs to an ancient civilisation, whereas Greece is an ethno-nationalist bully with fascist undertones that oppresses a Slavic minority in the north. If that’s true, then the EU and others ought to be more worried than they are. But it has little bearing on the name of the northern neighbour. On that basis, the verdict is clear. If the Skopje authorities are right, then withholding recognition of their name is an outrage. If they are wrong, even if they are silly and provocative, it is not worth breaking eggshells to set them right.


Belgrade will state that Kosovo is a part of its territory as it submits answers to the European Commission (EC) questionnaire. This is according to EU Integration Office Director Milica Delević, who told B92 that she did not believe that "anybody will be surprised by the fact that Serbia will give answers in accordance with the Constitution". Delević also noted that she did not think there would be "any expectation about Serbia declaring itself in some way, since there is no consent about the issues in question among EU member states themselves". European Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele told Novi Sad-based daily Dnevnik recently that the EU was not forcing Serbia to "choose between membership and tendency to have Kosovo as a part of Serbia", which, he said, would be confirmed in the questionnaire – a document submitted to every country during a review of its candidacy. “The questions that the questionnaire will bring won’t be a surprise to anybody because they are directed to help the Commission which will sort the opinions about our application for membership, and about how close we are to the fulfillment of the criteria,” Delević stated. She pointed out that the questionnaire is the same for everyone, and that it could be expected that Serbia would receive the same documents as Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Albania had. Delević stressed that "there was no clear consensus in the EU about whether Kosovo was a state or not, but that there was agreement that it is necessary to include Kosovo into integration processes, on both European and regional level".


Two intense liturgical training practicums for deacons, students in the Orthodox Church in America's Diaconal Vocations Program, and those interested in the diaconate will be held this summer at Saint Vladimir's Seminary, Yonkers, NY and Saint Herman's Seminary, Kodiak, AK.For the fourth year, Saint Vladimir's Seminary will offer the Diaconal Liturgical Practicum June 20-24, 2010. This year's practicum will be one day longer than last year to allow increased discussion and work on the deacon's vocation in the parish, the diaconal vocation in service to neighbor, and different experience levels. Faculty include Archdeacon Kirill Sokolov and Priests Alexander Rentel and Sergius Halvorsen. A similar practicum will be held at Saint Herman's Seminary August 4-7, in conjunction with the annual pilgrimage honoring Saint Herman of Alaska, which concludes on August 9. "Participants will be afforded a special opportunity to receive practical diaconal liturgical training, to engage in 'diakonia in action' on Spruce Island, and to participate in the pilgrimage in the unmatched beauty of Alaska's 'Emerald Isle,'" said Archdeacon Kirill, who with Archpriest John Dunlop, dean of Saint Herman's Seminary, will lead the practicum. "The two practicums are being held held in conjunction with the Orthodox Church in America's Diaconal Vocations Program and are highly recommended for participants in the Church's program by the Holy Synod," Archdeacon Kirill added. "According to His Beatitude, Metropolitan Jonah, diakonia is at the center of the vocation of every Christian. The hierarchs are thankful for the growth in diaconal vocations throughout our Church, and these annual practicums gives deacons a strong context for their service at the holy altar." During the practicums, practical liturgical training for deacons and lay diaconal candidates will be supported by the celebration of the Divine Liturgy and other services. Intensive workshops will provide participants with the skills needed to serve effectively. Attention will be given to the liturgical patterns of movement that inform the entire rite of the Church. Participants will also receive guidance on concelebration and hierarchical celebrations in order to effectively prepare for such occasions. In addition to practicums, focused presentations by faculty will augment the deacon's understanding of his place in the liturgical life of the Church and his broader vocation as a witness to the faithful of the diakonia of Christ. Instruction in public speaking and vocal technique will also be offered. The Diaconal Vocations Program is a program of theological study offered by the Holy Synod to prepare men who may be called for ordination to the Holy Diaconate. The Holy Synod recently blessed a process of evaluation and revision for the Program. Archdeacon Kirill was recently appointed Coordinator of the Diaconal Vocations Program. He can be reached for any questions about the Program and the summer practicums at www.oca.org. For more information and/or to register for the Diaconal Vocations Program at Saint Vladimir's Seminary see www.svots.edu. For more information and/or to register for the Diaconal Liturgical Praticum at Saint Herman Seminary see www.sthermanseminary.org.