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Thursday, October 01, 2009

Michael's Daily 7 - 1 October



Last year the impulsive authoritarian Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili presented the meme that his was a heroic government victimized by the evil Russians. American politicians like Sen. John McCain rushed to the Georgian standard, declaring that "We're all Georgians now." Make that "We're all Georgian (aggressors) now." Yesterday the European Union provided additional evidence that Georgia actually started the war. There's much to blame on Russia, particularly its brutal, disproportionate response to Georgia's attack. But for the West, which attacked Serbia in 1989 in order to detach Kosovo from Belgrade's control, to complain about Moscow's support for South Ossetian and Abkhazian independence is rather rich in hypocrisy. Washington cares about the territorial integrity of nations only when it's convenient. The U.S. can hardly complain about Russia not behaving in a more principled fashion. But the most important lesson of the Russia-Georgia war is how foolish it would be to extend NATO membership to a country which is not only irrelevant to American security but prone to start wars with nuclear-armed powers. It was one thing for America to risk all to protect Europe from the Evil Empire. But to contemplate a nuclear confrontation on behalf of a country prepared to foolishly initiate hostilities against Moscow? Such a step would make America less, not more, secure.


The White House remains in deep denial about the growing unpopularity of President Obama's government health care plan. Recent polls not only show that a clear majority of voters disapprove of his government-run entitlement plan; they also show that key groups who make up that majority - seniors and independents - are now moving away from the Democrats and toward Republicans in the 2010 election cycle. [A] Rasmussen poll shows that a 56 percent majority of Americans now oppose the plan, and a slight 47 percent to 46 percent plurality say that its passage is unlikely. Perhaps most telling of all, senior citizens are strongly opposed to the $1 trillion plan - with a muscular 59 percent of them opposed and just 33 percent in favor. Significantly, only 16 percent of Americans over 65 years of age "strongly favor" the Democratic bills, while 46 percent are "strongly opposed." The White House-backed plan would be largely financed by up to $500 billion in Medicare and Medicaid spending cuts that the elderly fear would lead to reduced medical payments, hospital services and other health care procedures. The administration and Democratic leaders deny this, saying they intend to cut only waste, fraud and abuse from the programs. But there is also widespread doubt among rank-and-file Democrats in Congress that you can carve nearly $400 billion out of Medicare's budget without short-changing medical care for the nation's elderly. And there's also growing fear that the deep cuts that would be required to bankroll Mr. Obama's costly health care plan will lead to a backlash among seniors in the 2010 midterm elections. If the Democrats succeed in ramrodding their plans into law over fierce public opposition, "they will create an enormous political backlash that will open the door for Republicans to retake control of Congress" in 2010, just as the Republican Party did after the Hillarycare debacle in 1994.


President Barack Obama is confronting a split among his closest advisers on Afghanistan, reflecting divisions in his own party over whether to send in thousands more U.S. troops and complicating his efforts to adopt a war policy he can sell to a public grown weary of the 8-year-old conflict. With top military commanders and congressional Republicans pushing for a troop increase, Obama pressed key members of his national security team Wednesday for their views during an intense, three-hour session in a packed White House Situation Room. According to The Wall Street Journal, the discussion focused on the political and security situation on the ground, according to an administration official, with military commanders detailing the gains made by the insurgency and top diplomats discussing the Afghan election results that were marred by fraud claims. In an interview with the Journal, a senior defense official said that Defense Secretary Robert Gates now worries that counterinsurgency might no longer be a viable approach for countering the Taliban violence roiling once-stable parts of north and west Afghanistan. Gates, a Bush administration holdover, has emerged as one of Obama's most trusted advisers, so his views carry significant weight in the deliberations. The meeting didn't include specific discussions of troop levels, a senior administration official said. At its conclusion, Obama reminded the crowd that he hadn't reached a decision and that his war council should return twice next week with more details and ideas, the official said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private deliberations. The talks revealed the emerging fault lines within the administration, with military commanders solidly behind the request for additional troops and other key officials divided.


Negotiating Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders must join forces and embrace a collaborative, federal reunification of the island in the next few months, or see their efforts overtaken by the unstoppable dynamic of a hostile partition. Cyprus: Reunification or Partition?*, the latest report from the International Crisis Group, argues that leaders now face a last brief window of opportunity to implement the 30-year-old idea that the large Greek Cypriot and the small Turkish Cypriot communities can live together in a federal republic of two constituent states. Absent real progress toward a solution, in April 2010 the Turkish Cypriots will likely elect a more hardline candidate in the place of their pro-settlement leader, Mehmet Ali Talat. The current phase of the Cyprus problem will then almost certainly end. “The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders share more common ground than any of their predecessors, want a solution and know inside out the issues that divide their communities”, says Hugh Pope, Crisis Group’s Turkey/Cyprus Project Director. “If these two cannot agree on federal reunification, nobody can”. If the negotiations fail, the Cyprus dispute will continue to block half of Turkey’s EU accession process, and all sides will lose. Greek Cypriots will suffer from greater insecurity, a much-reduced chance of compensation for property and an indefinitely divided island. Turkish Cypriots will see their community driven into integration with Turkey. Turkey will lose the regional charisma and economic boon of having a real EU accession process. The EU will forego commercial opportunities in Turkey, sacrifice strategic depth in regional disputes and see a withering in the soft power that results from having Turkey as its convinced advocate in Middle Eastern counsels. [To read the report in full, click here.]


The Government of Greece is contributing half a million Euros (over one million shekels) to help the Palestinian Authority (PA) settle bills due to the private sector in the field of security and rule of law. Through this assistance, Greece is providing critical support to the private sector and to the PA, in a bid to help sustain the economy and ease the ongoing difficult fiscal situation faced by the PA. Greece is providing the funds, which will be disbursed in three lots, through the EU's dedicated mechanism for assistance to the Palestinians, PEGASE, which channels EU assistance to build the institutions of the future Palestinian state. A number of West Bank businesses that provide supplies for the Civil Police, the Civil Defence and the Ministry of Justice will benefit directly from this cash injection. The first contribution of €200,000 will pay back arrears relating to the purchase of vehicles and Civil Police uniforms. This is the first time that the Greek Government has contributed to the Palestinian Authority through the EU's PEGASE mechanism, emphasising the commitment of the Greek government to help reinforce and build the PA's institutions. The arrears repayment scheme is one of a number of initiatives by the European Union to support the PA through PEGASE, along with contributions to the payment of salaries and pensions, quarterly payments of social allowances to families in need and the continued provision of industrial fuel for the production of electricity in the Gaza Strip.


Republic of Srpska Prime Minister Milorad Dodik has met with Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremić to discuss the political situation in Bosnia-Herzegovina. Dodik said today that during a meeting with Jeremić on Wednesday night, Serbia had expressed its desire to help unblock the political crisis sparked by recent decisions by Bosnia-Herzegovina International High Representative Valentin Inzko. “Serbia is obliged to implement the Dayton Agreement, because it is one of its signatories and, in that context, we spoke about current political issues and problems,” Dodik said. He added that Jeremić had informed him of the Serbian government’s position regarding Inzko’s decisions concerning the Elektroprenos company and the set of laws on ending supervision in the Brčko district. “We agreed that conditions needed to be met for closing the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina in order to have a chance to apply for EU membership,” Dodik said. He said that Jeremić had advised him to invest maximum efforts in solving the current problems in Bosnia. Dodik said that in his talks with Dodik, there had been talk of Serbia’s progress on the path to Europe, and visits that would be taking place both in Banja Luka and Belgrade in the coming months.


Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I will open the meeting to be attended by 120 members of the commission in Kolympari, Crete from October 7 to 14. The meeting will not only address issues that have traditionally divided Christian denominations, but also matters that have become divisive in more recent times, such as questions of moral discernment. This new approach will be rooted in a reflection on how churches relate to their sources of theological authority. Case studies will be used to illustrate how churches use these references to make moral decisions. WCC President Dr Mary Tanner will encourage participants to engage in what she believes could be the beginning of a new phase in Faith and Order’s history. The main theme of the meeting, “Called to be the One Church”, will be addressed by prominent Church leaders and theologians from Europe, South Africa, Latin America and East Asia. Contributors to a discussion on the nature and mission of the church include the Rev Dr Paul Collins from the Church of England. The World Council of Churches is an international Christian ecumenical organisation representing about 560 million Christians in more than 120 countries.