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Thursday, October 15, 2009

Michael's Daily 7 - 15 October



Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder says that the recognition of Kosovo’s unilateral independence declaration was a grave mistake. Schroeder said that this was backed up by the fact that two-thirds of the international community had not recognized Kosovo. “I criticized the recognition of Kosovo independence, because it was rushed and pushed through by pressure from the then American administration,” Schroeder said. He also said that the future of Serbia was in the European Union. He said that the EU must speed up Serbia’s integration process, reiterating that many conditions had already been fulfilled.


The leader of the Serbian half of Bosnia today demanded the right to break up the country as part of a constitutional reform package that is being pushed by the EU and the US. Milorad Diodik's demand to be allowed the right to secede collided with an ultimatum from Brussels for Bosnia's feuding leaders to agree on reforms to streamline the dysfuctional state or forget about their prospects of union membership. Senior European and American officials had emergency talks in Sarajevo last week with Bosnia's estranged political leaders and will return next Monday. The US and Europe have suddenly become active in the Balkans, amid growing international fears that Bosnia could drift back into conflict. "We need certain constitutional changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina," said Olli Rehn, the European commissioner for enlargement, who issued ultimatum to the country's leaders. But officials in Brussels and Sarajevo were gloomy about the chances of success. In the 14 years since the Bosnian war ended with the country divided into a Serbian half and a Muslim-Croat federation, the country has become entrenched as a partitioned international protectorate headed by a European viceroy and dominated by nationalist politicians who refuse to deal with one another. Dodik today told western officials preparing next week's talks that any constitutional reforms would need to include a new article giving the two halves of Bosnia the right to hold a referendum. The Europeans are signalling that 14 years of international supervision of Bosnia has failed to establish a viable country. They are keen to close down by the end of the year the Office of High Representative, the international official running Bosnia – currently the Austrian diplomat Valentin Inzko, and previously Lord Ashdown. "The country needs to stand on its own feet," said Rehn. "It needs to be able to govern itself. No quasi-protectorate can join the EU." But the Europeans and the Americans are at odds. Brussels is pushing for a quick closure of the international role, but the Americans are less keen.


A top Russian diplomat suggested Thursday that the U.S. should not talk with non-NATO nations about a prospective missile shield, Russian news agencies reported. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov's remarks appeared to reflect alarm over the idea that Western-leaning neighbors such as Ukraine or Georgia, Russia's foe in a war last year, could potentially host U.S. missile defense facilities. Ryabkov said Russia is concerned about what he said were contacts between the U.S. and nations outside NATO on missile defense, state-run ITAR-Tass and RIA Novosti reported. President Barack Obama removed a major irritant in relations with Russia last month by scrapping U.S. plans to place interceptor missiles in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic — deployments Russia treated as a threat. The Kremlin has praised Obama for the decision, but Russian officials have also said they want to know details about what system the U.S. will put in place instead. Ryabkov's comments served as a warning that the United States should avoid taking steps that would threaten Russia or turning to its neighbors as potential partners in missile defense without consulting with Moscow. "We are experiencing the concerns that emerge when major questions of strategic stability should be considered in a partner-like manner," he was quoted as saying. Russia and the U.S. have discussed cooperating on missile defense, and Ryabkov represented Russia in talks on the issue in Moscow on Monday ahead of Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton's visit. Ryabkov did not name any specific nations as being in contact with the U.S. about missile defense, but he spoke in response to a question about Russian media reports suggesting the U.S. might use Ukrainian radar stations. Tensions over Georgia and uncertainty over the future of Ukraine, whose pro-Western president wants the country to join NATO, are hurdles in efforts by Russia and the U.S. to mend strained ties.


Russia will revise its military doctrine to allow a “preventative” nuclear strike against would-be aggressors, a top Kremlin policy-maker was quoted as saying on Wednesday. Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the powerful security council, said the conditions under which Russia could resort to atomic weapons are being reworked in the main strategy document and will be reviewed by President Dmitry Medvedev by the end of the year. “The conditions have been revised for the use of nuclear weapons to rebuff an aggression with the use of conventional weapons, not only on a massive-scale but on a regional and even local level,” Patrushev told the Izvestia newspaper. “Variants are under considerations for the use of nuclear weapons depending on the situation and potential of a would-be aggressor,” he said. “In a critical situation for national security, a preventative nuclear strike on an aggressor is not ruled out.” Under its current military doctrine, Russia says it would only carry out a nuclear strike if it were attacked with weapons of mass destruction or if it were the victim of “large-scale aggression” using conventional arms. Russian and US negotiators are now working furiously to agree on new arms cuts of their nuclear arsenal before a key Cold War-era disarmament treaty expires on December 5. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reiterated the joint drive to achieve new arms reductions by this deadline after talks in Moscow this week.


Even before he was elected as president of France in 2007, Nicolas Sarkozy made it crystal-clear that he didn’t want Turkey to join the European Union - ever. Now concerns are growing in Brussels that Sarkozy is contemplating a formal Franco-German initiative next year to offer Turkey a “privileged partnership” instead of, as now, the long-term prospect of full EU membership. The idea of a “privileged partnership” has been around for a good few years. Sarkozy likes it, and so does Germany’s ruling Christian Democratic party. It also appeals to Angela Merkel, the CDU chancellor. However, Merkel has up to now taken a nuanced approach, recognising that Germany, along with other EU countries, recognised Turkey as an official candidate for membership in 1999. A responsible country cannot just wriggle out of agreements made in good faith, Merkel believes. The difference now is that, after last month’s German election, the Social Democrats - more sympathetic to Turkey’s aspirations - are out of government and have been replaced by the Free Democrats, whose position on Turkey is more ambiguous. The balance of opinion in Berlin is changing. Sarkozy may try to seize the opportunity to line up the new German government behind the concept of the ”privileged partnership”, according to EU policymakers. Needless to say, Turkey would dismiss an offer along these lines as an insult. There is no legal foundation for a “privileged partnership”, says Egemen Bagis, Turkey’s chief negotiator on EU matters. You are either in the EU or not in the EU. You cannot be half-pregnant, Bagis said. Turkey’s EU membership bid is in serious trouble, anyway. The European Commission tried to put a brave face on matters this week in its annual report on Turkey. But the inescapable truth is that out of the 35 negotiation chapters, or policy areas, that a country needs to complete in order to join the EU, Turkey has opened 11, of which only one has been provisionally closed. Another 12 chapters have been either formally frozen by the EU, or informally blocked by France with support from others opposed to Turkey’s bid. The entire process risks grinding to a halt. In December EU leaders will discuss Turkey’s failure to heed their calls to open its ports and airports to ships and aircraft from the Greek Cypriot-controlled government of Cyprus. In theory they could take a harsh line and more or less abandon Turkey’s EU entry talks.


The decision whether the accession talks between Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and the EU to start has to be made by all member states, which, including Greece, have the right to impose veto, Greek Ta Nea newspaper informed. After the report on West Balkans and Turkey progress was published Greece deputy foreign minster Dimitris Drucos noted the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia would not get data on starting the negotiations of the name dispute is not solved as pointing the decision is “in the competence of the EU member states, including Greece.”


More than 120 theologians from various Christian traditions concluded on Tuesday a meeting in Greece where they discussed ecumenism and the call to be one church. On the opening day of the Oct. 7-13 meeting the Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, spiritual leader of Orthodox Christians around the world, acknowledged the unity of the Church is a "never-ending search, an ever-unfolding journey." But he added that their ongoing pursuit of unity is "a testimony to the fact that what we seek will occur in God’s time and not our own." "[U]nity obliges us to a common purpose in this age as we expect the age-to-come; for it commits us to a sacred ministry and mission in realizing that kingdom, as we declare in the Lord’s prayer, 'on earth as in heaven,'" he said.