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Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Michael's Daily 7 - 20 October



Is it not a paradox, Greek Cypriot President Demetris Christofias asked in full rhetorical flight before the United Nations General Assembly last month, that Turkey should now have a seat on the U.N. Security Council? The apparent contradiction, of course, being that Turkish troops have occupied one third of Mr. Christofias's Mediterranean island country—a European Union member no less—for 35 years, despite U.N. resolutions demanding their withdrawal. Right now is the best chance in years to break through the half-century-old Cyprus deadlock. The current talks on a settlement between the Cypriot leaders are doing much better than is generally realized, but the time left to resolve these paradoxes is short. In April 2010, the pro-solution Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat faces an election. Absent the success on Cyprus that he promised to achieve, all the signs are that he will lose to a hardline candidate. If that were to happen, three decades of efforts to reunite the island on the basis of a bicommunal, bizonal federation would end. Indeed, for many, the old status quo ended in 2004, when Cyprus and the EU missed a big opportunity and Cyprus entered the Union as a divided island. If by April the talks fail to achieve a collaborative settlement to deal with the island's problems, this new phase of the Cyprus dispute will be a sharp swerve toward hostile partition. A failure to solve Cyprus would also doom deeper EU-NATO ties: Cyprus is a member of one organization and Turkey a member of the other; yet most EU countries have shown no support whatsoever for solving the dispute. Greek Cypriots are actually having to restrain some EU member-state leaders, who see in the Cyprus dispute a new way to close down Turkey's EU accession process. Worse, while the world has been worrying about big-power missile grandstanding around Iran and Russia, it is Athens and Ankara who have been actually stocking up on missiles in case growing frictions turn into frustrated anger. Watch this space: Gunboats and seismic survey ships have already been sparring over oil prospecting rights, with Turkey disputing territorial claims made by Greece and Greek Cypriots in the Mediterranean. All sides will lose if the talks collapse. Greek Cypriots will suffer from greater insecurity, Turkish troops indefinitely on their doorstep, and a much-reduced chance of compensation for or restitution of property. Turkish Cypriots will see their community scatter or be driven into integration with Turkey. Ankara will lose the regional charisma and economic boon of having a real EU accession process. The EU will forego commercial opportunities in Turkey, sacrifice strategic depth in regional disputes and see a withering in the soft power that results from having Turkey anchored in an EU process and thus a convincing advocate when it speaks up for European values in meetings with Middle Eastern leaders.


Russian President Dmitry Medvedev arrived in Serbia on Oct. 20 for an eight-hour visit that coincides with the 65th anniversary of the liberation of Belgrade from Nazi Germany in the Second World War. During his visit, Medvedev will hold a meeting with Serbian President Boris Tadić, speak before the Serbian parliament and receive the Serbian Orthodox Church’s highest distinction: the Order of St. Sava of the First Degree. Medvedev’s visit to Belgrade reaffirms strong relations between Russia and Serbia and illustrates that despite Serbia being led by an officially pro-EU government, Moscow may be on the best terms with Belgrade in decades. Serbia and Russia are often cited as “traditional” allies, due to strong cultural and religious links between the two Slav and Orthodox countries. However, Serbia has at various times in its history allied against Russia, most notably during the entirety of the Cold War. Therefore, there is nothing “traditional” about the alliance; and like all alliances, it is most concrete when based on firm geopolitical foundations. Today, the status quo in the Balkans is that the West has won the various 1990s wars of post-Cold War transition and that, other than Serbia, most of the region is under the West’s overt control or rolled into its alliances. Furthermore, despite Belgrade’s democratic changes, the European Union (most of it anyway) and the United States continued to support Kosovo’s February 2008 unilateral declaration of independence. This was unacceptable to Serbia due to the fact that it lost sovereignty over 15 percent of its territory, and unacceptable to Russia because it illustrated the West’s complete disregard for Moscow’s concerns on European post-Cold War security arrangements. It is in this confluence of interests that officially pro-EU Belgrade and Moscow have found common grounds for what appears to be a budding relationship. Meanwhile, Russian business interests in Serbia are growing and are heavily influential across the political spectrum of both nationalist and pro-Western political parties in Serbia. In Belgrade, Medvedev is accompanied by a delegation of about 100 government and business officials that will finalize a Russian loan of 1 billion euro ($1.5 billion) to the Serbian government. Medvedev’s visit to Belgrade therefore makes official what has become obvious over the past six months: that Serbia and Russia are coming closer on more than just the Kosovo issue. From Brussels’ perspective, Serbia is surrounded by NATO member countries and isolated from Russia. Europe and the United States believe they have the luxury of letting Serbia sit on the outside looking in for essentially as long as they want. But in the meantime, Russia will play on Serbia’s indignation over being left outside of EU integration processes and will increase its influence in the Balkans, trying to upset the West’s stranglehold in the region. The real question is to what ends Russia will use its budding alliance with Serbia, particularly as the game between Moscow and Washington heats up over Central Europe and Iran.


After impugning the objectivity of Fox News and saying that they would begin to treat the network as "an opponent," White House officials said Sunday that they will allow administration officials to appear on the network. Last week, White House communications director Anita Dunn said Fox News, which airs the shows of several conservative commentators, functions "almost as either the research arm or the communications arm of the Republican Party. . . . We don't need to pretend that this is the way that legitimate news organizations behave." Without citing specific complaints against Fox, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said on CNN's "State of the Union" that the way "the president looks at it and we look at it is it is not a news organization so much as it has a perspective." Obama eschewed "Fox News Sunday" when he appeared on five Sunday-morning news shows last month. Again this week, he sent aides to discuss the war in Afghanistan, the economy and the overhaul of the nation's health-care system on ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC. Fox was left out. Still, senior Obama adviser David Axelrod said on ABC's "This Week" that administration officials are willing to appear on the network in the future.


The U.S. Chamber of Commerce fell victim to identity theft Monday when activist pranksters sent out a fake press release and staged a phony news conference to announce the organization's endorsement of climate-change legislation. "There is only one sound way to do business," said prepared remarks included with the ersatz release. "That's to support a strong climate-change bill quickly so . . . President Obama can lead the entire business world in ensuring our long-term prosperity." In reality, the chamber has opposed most climate-change legislation, expressing concerns that it was not sufficiently comprehensive and international and that it imposed too high a regulatory burden. The briefing at the National Press Club -- complete with the chamber's logo on the lectern -- did not last long. Within a few minutes, a real chamber official, communications director walked in and announced: "This is a fraudulent press activity, and a stunt." The handful of reporters present were left to stare as Wohlschlegel and the fake chamber officials accused each other of being impostors and demanded to see each other's business cards. "These irresponsible tactics are a foolish distraction from the serious effort by our nation to reduce greenhouse gases," the chamber's vice president for communications said in a statement. Reuters and CNBC briefly reported the fake news, but both ran corrections minutes later.


Adults with little Internet experience show changes in their brain activity after just one week online, a new study finds. The results suggest Internet training can stimulate neural activation patterns and could potentially enhance brain function and cognition in older adults. As the brain ages, a number of structural and functional changes occur, including atrophy, or decay, reductions in cell activity and increases in complex things like deposits of amyloid plaques and tau tangles, which can impact cognitive function. Research has shown that mental stimulation similar to the stimulation that occurs in individuals who frequently use the Internet may affect the efficiency of cognitive processing and alter the way the brain encodes new information. "The results suggest that searching online may be a simple form of brain exercise that might be employed to enhance cognition in older adults," the study's first author and UCLA researcher, said in a statement. Previous research by the UCLA team found that searching online resulted in a more than twofold increase in brain activation in older adults with prior experience, compared with those with little Internet experience. The new findings suggest that it may take only days for those with minimal experience to match the activity levels of those with years of experience. Additional studies will be needed to address the impact of the Internet on younger individuals and help identify aspects of online searching that generate the greatest levels of brain activation.


In lawless Somalia, the Al Shabaab—“the Youngsters”—Muslim terrorist group has sent its gunmen into the streets of Mogadishu to gather up women who appear to violate Islamic law for wearing bras that they claim are “deceptive.” According to locals, Al Shabaabi round up women who appear to have firm bosoms and then inspects them to determine whether that firmness is natural or not. If the firmness is the result of wearing a bra, they are ordered to remove it and shake their breasts in the presence of the Al Shabaab men. Al Shabaab—many of whose members appeared masked when in public—have forced Somali women to wear full veils. They whipped two girls on October 15, as other women have also been whipped, for wearing bras. Al Shabaab believes that women’s breasts should be firm naturally, or lie flat. Al Shabaab is enforcing a particularly strict reading of Sharia (Islamic law). They have, in addition to bras, banned dancing and music at weddings, musical ringtones, and the playing or watching of soccer. They have also severed a hand and foot from each of two men accused of theft. Al Shabaab is one of a number of Muslim terrorist organizations that colludes with Al Qaeda, led by Osama bin Laden. Islamic law concerning gender roles and the status of women harkens back to the Koran, which forms the basis of Sharia. According to the Koran, a woman’s testimony is worth but half that of a man: "Get two witnesses, out of your own men, and if there are not two men, then a man and two women, such as ye choose, for witnesses, so that if one of them errs, the other can remind her" (2:282). It is up to men to enforce Islamic law. The Koran instructs husbands to beat discordant wives, saying that "men are in charge of women, because Allah hath made the one of them to excel the other," and that therefore "good women are the obedient." And as for those who are not obedient, the Koran directs men to give them a warning, send them to a separate bed, and "beat them" (4:34). It also allows for marriage to pre-pubescent girls, stipulating that Islamic divorce procedures "shall apply to those who have not yet menstruated" (65:4).


Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, spiritual leader of the world's Orthodox Christians, will visit New Orleans this week (Oct. 20-24) for a symposium on the environment with scientists, policymakers and religious leaders. Bartholomew, spiritual leader to 275 million Orthodox Christians around the globe, arrives in New Orleans on Tuesday and will deliver the symposium's keynote speech on Wednesday, according to his church's Web site. The visit is generating excitement for Orthodox believers in the area. "Any time the head of your church, your spiritual leader, gets this close to the community, it's a blessing, and the message he brings of taking care of God's creation is important," said the Rev. Elias Stevens. Bartholomew has persistently proclaimed the primacy of spiritual values in determining environmental ethics and action. His endeavors earned him the title "Green Patriarch" and Time magazine has named him one of the 100 most influential people in the world for "defining environmentalism as a spiritual responsibility." Following the New Orleans leg of the visit, according to the church's itinerary, Bartholomew will visit Atlanta, New York and Washington. The trip will conclude Nov. 5 with a reception and dinner in his honor with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to the itinerary, which is subject to change. This will be Bartholomew's second visit to New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina. The first was just four months after the storm, when he offered prayers for the victims. Bartholomew, who was elected in 1991, is based in Istanbul but has sponsored meetings to focus attention on environmental issues in the Arctic, the Amazon, the Adriatic, Baltic and Black seas and the Danube river. To read more about His All Holiness and view the itinerary, please click here.